Comparison of Predicted Proofs with Actual Proofs of GGBP bulls (August 07)
Young bulls selected for use in the GGBP are selected by the Breeders on the FOB (future of the breed ) Committee based on Pedigree Information, which comes from the performance of the Parents or in the case where a young unproven bull is the Sire , then the Grandparents performance is used.
Once the daughters start milking then their production figures are compared against daughters of other bulls in the same herd and then across the breed.
Because the GGBP bull semen has been used in Mainland and Guernsey Island herds, a good spread of daughters has been achieved and high reliabilities of the proofs are occuring.
The proofs of these first 20 bulls show that 14 have gained proofs that are greater than predictions, with 3 ( Oberon, SP Royal Oak and Pedro ) greater than 150% of the prediction, whilst another 7 ( Alacrity, Royal Highness,Storm, Hawk,Aaron and Hunter 2) greater than 125%.
All 10 of those bulls are sons of sires ( 6 different bulls) who were already proven when the sons were born and so had high reliabilities.
The 6 bulls that are below the predictions are (Ambassador [94%],Stingboy [80%],Rocket [71%], Tempest [55%],Pacific [52%] and Nimrod [39%] are with the exception of Pacific sons of bulls who were awiting proofs at the time of selection. The sires in question ( Stingray, Sonic and Jordan) failed to live up to their own predicted proofs and if that information had been available then it is unlikely that these bulls would have been used within GGBP.
The advice that EGCS recieved was that similar schemes in other breeds have delivered approx. 80% of the Parent Average in the proofs of the young bulls but these 20 bulls have delivered 113%.
I believe that in practice we should be pleased with these outcomes as there is no doubt that production levels continue to increase year on year and so do average Classification scores.
Please use the "Comment" box below to agree or disagree with this view.
Comments
coxy
29 Aug 2007, 07:36
As a newcomer to the GY and being used to more reps turning up with proven
sires than the GY breed had sires available.The GGBP has been a real light
at the end of a very dark tunnel with not knowing any of the previous
history of the breed.
I have real faith in the scheme and each year our heifers have become more
uniform and dairy like not without the odd hitch but what scheme is well
impressed and a credit to the GY breeder that good cow families dont get
preferential treatment and so the predictions are acurate
well done
coxy
29 Aug 2007, 14:56
SORRY forgot to mention on the negative i have a real problem understanding
the desire to only collect enough semen to get a reliable proof and then
use the few straws left for the next generation of sires.
What a missed oportunity!! for the sake of collecting 1000 surplus straws
minimum and storing for say 5 yrs at a total cost of £300 ,throw them away
if the sires proves unfit but if he comes up trumps whats it worth
£10,000.
Some of the breeders were moaning why should they sell these high GMI young
bulls to the EGCS when Genus would pay four times the offer of EGCS well if
bull turns out marketable for a secound time give the breeder £2 a straw on
any additional sales and their happy and the EGCS coffers have a much
needed boost.
As for the purist thinking that this is against all the principals of GMI
having a 2nd release of semen will have too big an influence in the
national herd CODSWALLOP ,1000 sraws would only give about 120 extra
milking females, also who said that the extra semen has to be sold GY/UK
how many articles has posed about demand a broad and nothing to fill it
with lifestock or semen .
Finally non of us are farming for something to do neither should the GGBP
BE RUN AT A LOSS subsidised by those that can least affoerd it , GY
has a hugh black hole and a dairy
industry constantly goverment funded but for how long.
It would appear that those no longer breeding are making too many of the
important decisions and the rest of us are funding them .Is it purley by
chance that two of the best herds in GY are the only ones that match mate
with proven sires.
We live in a global technology era and we dont all have to be in the same
room to communicate succesfully so the argument about the old retired
breeders are the only ones having the free time to speak up for the rest of
the working breeders bull crap.
Digby Gribble
02 Sep 2007, 21:13
Hi Mike,
I have waited a few days before replying hoping that your comments would
produce a response, but as ever it appears that we more viewers than
users.
Originally the GGBP was designed to be "self financing" ie Sale of the
first release of semen (400-600 straws) would have to pay for all of the
costs of Collection and lease of the young sire from the breeder ( approx
£2500-£3000 per bull). Therefore only a limited amount of extra semen has
been collected and stored against a "second use".
Now that 20 bulls have gained proofs and are on average better than the
Predictions on which they were chozen, it is probably the time to review
the whole process.
Of the first 20 only Royal Highness was still alive once Proven and he has
had extra semen collected in particular with "world" markets in mind, as at
+0.38% BF he is the world leader for that trait.
There are small amounts of semen from most of the other newly proven bulls
and we have been able to import extra semen from Hawk and Aaron, but only
because the US system still banks several thousand straws of each young
bull "tested".
Now that "world" markets are open to UK semen we are in practice collecting
extra semen from each bull as the "quarantine" requirements for Export
semen mean that the young bulls spend longer on the Centre.
All semen collected qualifies for use in the "home" market if not sold for
export and so there will be semen available in the future as these bulls
get their proofs.
